ABSTRACT

Using the example of conflict escalation in former Yugoslavia, a common framework of the mechanisms leading to conflict escalation is developed in this paper. Escalation of ethno-nationalist violence is described as an endogenous feature of the nation. The principle of the nation may succeed in being an organising principle for integrating large-scale social groups. However, it may also generate the extreme event of ethno-nationalist violence. The architecture of a simulation model is described to test the extreme event hypothesis.

KEY WORDS

Yugoslavia, conflict escalation, securizitation, extreme events, nationalism

CLASSIFICATION

ACM:	D.2.2, I.2.0, I.2.11, I.6, J.4
APA:	2910, 2930, 2960, 3040
JEL:	D81, D83, Z19
PACS:	89.75.Fb