FORECASTING LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE
EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES: IS LABOUR
PRODUCTIVITY CHANGING AS EXPECTED?
Berislav muk
0000-0003-3487-1376, Received: 13th July 2018. ABSTRACT The aim of the article is to propose different ways of forecasting
labour productivity developments by using different statistical forecasting methods and applying
different approaches to the most appropriate statistical forecasting method selection. This article
examines labour productivity in the European Union member states, measured per employee and per hour
worked, in the period from 1990 to 2016. In the forecasting analysis, seven statistical forecasting
methods are used to forecast labour productivity for each European Union member state separately and
for the European Union as a whole. Overall, three approaches to determine the forecast values of
labour productivity have been used in the analysis. The impact of each statistical forecasting method
was determined by using the MSE approach. The results are suggesting that the differences in labour
productivity between countries should be smaller. In the future research, the level of labour
productivity convergence in the European Union should be investigated. CLASSIFICATION
Ksenija Dumičić
0000-0001-7131-9455 and
Irena Palić
0000-0002-7525-0640
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business
Zagreb, Croatia
INDECS 16(3-B), 504-523, 2018
DOI 10.7906/indecs.16.3.20
Full text available here.
Accepted: 27th September 2018.
Regular article
KEY WORDS
European Union member states, labour productivity, statistical forecasting methods
JEL: C53, E24, J24